Onthesteel's Blog

Sunday 18th April

A hugely improved day yesterday with a number hitting the bar and TWO winners….., bringing me back into a positive LSP for the month.

The selections for today are:

2:35 Ascot – Cockney Trucker @ 9/4: Henderson horse is the tissue favourite, mainly thanks to his good day yesterday, and he may well have a winner later on the card too, but You’re The Top will do well to give almost a stone to Cockney Trucker, whose recent form is better than that of his main rival. Cockney Trucker wasn’t bad as a hurdler, placed at the Cheltenham Festival and ran against Khyber Kim. He has improved as a chaser, albeit with experience and his run against Tchico Polos was franked yesterday when he ran well behind French Opera. He is slowly getting it together over fences and can the most of the weight he receives from Henderson’s horse, who disappointed last time and has a relatively long season. Cockney Trucker has missed Cheltenham this year and with the good ground likely to suit (won on it and breeding suggests it), he should take all the beating with a clear round.

3:10 Ascot – Rougham @ 3/1:
A double for Peter Hobbs and Richard Johnson perhaps, courtesy of top-weight, Rougham? This American bred will certainly prefer the quick conditions he gets today and if he can make use of his speed, he can make all against an uninspiring bunch. The only conceivable dangers look to be Souter Point who doesnt get home, Peace Corps who doesnt stay either and Blazing Buck who will find this happening all too quick. The selection has been raised 3lb for a second place finish at Wincanton. The ground that day was on the easy side of good and he did well to run so well, giving the winner 5lb. The third has come out and won since giving the form a solid look.

4:55 Ascot – Busker Royal ew @ 6/1: His run last time was abysmal and maybe something was amiss given he has been off 113 days since. He was running off the same mark as his previous win, so it wasnt as if the handicapper had caught up with him. The break may well have done him the world of good and if he can resume the progress he was making prior to that shocker, he could be value at around 6/1. Is a pound below his last winning mark now. Prior to that, he beat Nom de Guerre, who finished a creditable second yesterday behind Tribe and tends to hold his for well, whereas the previous time he beat subsequent Scottish National 3rd, No Panic in a novice chase. Hios course figures read 2,1,2,2 so he clearly likes it here and being by Sharastani, this quicker ground should be fine for him.

5:15 Stratford – Mumbles Pier ew @ 8/1: Has an absence to overcome but the booking of Tony McCoy suggests to me that connections mean business. No non-trier here! Has definitely been waiting for this better ground and todays quick conditions around a tight track like Stratford will suit well. His course figures read 1,2,4. When last here, he beat a previous (and subsequent winner) in Aohna and the third, fourth and fifth have all won since. He then disappointed at Exeter but the ground that day was on the easy side of good, the stable were not in great form and some horses dont act right-handed. The only other time Mumbles Pier went right-handed, he was beaten 25 lengths into third. I am prepared to forgive him that run. Off only 4lb above his winning mark, with conditions to suit and a stable in fine form, 8/1 looks each way value to me