Onthesteel's Blog

Saturday 17th April

Probably my worst week of tipping in the history of dodgy tipsters. At least my conscience is clear knowing that I’m not charging you for this rubbish!

Anyhow, undeterred, I know my luck will change and there are a few Saturday Sizzlers to get your teeth into with 3 options for the Scottish Grand National.

3:20 Ayr – Faasel ew @ 16/1, Scots Dragoon ew @ 14/1 Gidam Gidam ew @ 40/1: The Scottish Grand National is one of my favourite events of the year and there is plenty of value to be had. There are three this year that stand out at the the prices.

Faasel is one of the quirkiest animals in training but often seems to rise to the big occasions, nonemoreso than when a fine second at the Cheltenham Festival behind Ballabriggs. He isn’t proven over this distance but he has been outpaced on a few occasions and ran on very strongly last time, suggesting a step up to a marathon trip might be the making of him. He has gone up 4lb for the Cheltenham effort but is still well handicapped on his win at Carlisle off 150.

Gidam Gidam couldnt be said to be well handicapped bu he needs every inch of this 4 miles and he will be staying on stoutly when others have cried enough. He won the 4 miler at Doncaster on goodish ground beating one-time Gold Cup placed horse Turpin Green in the process. That form shouldnt be taken too literally, but it was an excellent effort nonetheless. He had some very useful stayers behind him that day (Briery Fox, Alderburn, King Harald, Jass, Rambling Minster, Garleton), none of whom would be out of place in this line-up. He went up a whopping 10lb for that win and subsequently finished a fair 7th behind Wogan over a trip too short. I am prepared to suggest that it was more the distance rather than the increased weight that did him that day as he got completely outpaced. One cannot say it was just the weight. Handicapper takes a couple of pounds off and he steps back up to a more suitable trip today. 40/1 looks huge.

My final offering for this race is Scots Dragoon. This grey is only 8 years old and could be improving a bit judged on this season’s cracking efforts. Although he is 4lb wrong at the weights, that is offset by David Bass’ excellent claim. He sluiced home in the Military Giold Cup, which although in itself is not necessarily good enough to win this, shows he is in good heart. Given the conditions of that race, he is able to run off the same mark today, with a fantastic conditional taking over. The trip is a slight unknown but he gets a stiff 3m 2f well enough, so an easy 4miles might be within his compass. Henderson has a 16% strike rate at Ayr, which is better than many.

2:00 Newbury – Manifest ew @ 6/1: Takes a decent horse to win this race usually and Manifest has the right credentials. Cecil made a very swift start to the season. Manifest was as impressive as a horse could be when winning his maiden by 19 lengths at the second time of asking. The second, third and fourth have all won since. He then tried his luck in a Listed event but could only finish 3rd. Maybe the faster ground was to blame that day, or maybe he was just feeling off – we all do sometimes. The winner, Akmal, went on to win a Group 3 with the runner-up second to him again, but Akmal would prefer a longer trip and is vulnerable at shorter. Manifest also finds himself 2lb better off at the weight today. Manifest steps back, which looks a good move and if the ground isnt too fast (which is a worry given the warm sunshine and strong winds we have had down here over the past 10 days),then he should take a world of beating.

2:35 Newbury – Cityscape ew @ 10/1 and Desert Creek ew @ 10/1:

Cityscape is an interesting runner as he would chew these up and spit them out on his best form and is definite Group Horse if over his sore shins. He was placed twice at Group 2 and Group 3 level before finishing a creditable, if very sore, 14th behind Sea The Stars in the 2000 Guineas. He has been off a year since, but that doesnt necessarily bother me as these Group horses, running in handicaps are invariably too good. He gets a handicap mark of 108, which is pretty fair on what he has achieved, but he has bags of potential and could start to fulfil it now by taking this and going on to better things.

Desert Creek is another interesting runner. He rattled up trio of wins, culminating in success at Haydock on heavy ground in the Silver Bowl. He has won on good to firm too, so the ground will not be an issue today. He then disappointed at Royal Ascot for reasons unknown as it was too bad to be just the handicap mark. He then bounced back to some form with a slightly better effort when 5th beind Sri Putra, who went on to bag the Group 3 Earl of Sefton earlier this week. He was bang there at the final furlong only to weaken quickly late on. Handicapper only drops him a pound, but if comes back to his early season form of last year, and can see out the race better than he did that day, he ought to be thereabouts.

3:05 Newbury – Lady of The Desert @ 11/4 and Puff ew at 8/1: Strictly on the formbook is held by Misheer, but is probably better than the bare result of that last race. Steps down into Group 3 company for the reappearance .Whispers have been encouraging for Lady of The Desert over the winter and is highly regarded by her trainer. She bagged three wins at two and although her sire is known for his 2 yr old precocity, they do tend to progress at 3 as well. She should be suited to 7f as both sire and dam got it. This race looks particularly weak with Misheer and Puff the only real dangers on the formbook.  Misheer looks tricky and Puff might be the bigger danger if she has trained on. Deidre would have been an option had this been over 8 or 10 furlongs. The others look out of their depth. Puff was just behind the selection in that said Group 1 and she was running on well that day. She will definitely appreciate the step up to 7 furlongs as there is extended sprint stamina on the dam’s side. Her sire, although a sprinter, progressed at 3 and she ought to do the same. The ground will be fine.

3:45 Banger – Tribe ew @ 13/2: Has not had much racing and looks ready to be stepped back up to 3 miles having been beaten over shorter recently. Was a fair fourth last time at Kempton over shorter and the handicapper has dropped him 2lb for that run. Looks solid each way material today

3:55 Ayr – Riptide ew @ 11/2 Seems to be improving and ran a great race to win at newbury despite some sketchy moments. Has gone up 6lb but looked to have more up his sleeve that day. Clearly goes well in blinkers and handles faster ground (has won on good to firm). Stable in blinding form, 11/2 looks good each way value again.