Onthesteel's Blog

Thursday 15th April – Kempton

Like the look of a lucky 15 on races 2-5 and suggest the following:

6:10 Kempton- Calypso Star @ 2/1: Has trained on well and looked a different horse on his reappearance when winning a shade cosily over a mile here. He needs to get this extra distance but the way he galloped to the line over a mile and the stamina influences in his dam’s side, he stands a great chance of getting it. Richard Hannon has hit a decent vein of form in the last few days and Calypso Star can further enhance that by taking this off only a 7lb higher mark.

6:40 – Kempton – Sedgewick @ 7/4: Is on a magnificent roll and still looked well ahead of the handicapper when sluicing in off a mark of 67. He beat a reliable yardstick in Quince that day and previously beat Drizzi (3rd here yesterday). The only slight nagging doubt is his ability to go right handed given all his winning has been done the other way round. Having said that, he has run well here before (placed 3rd). This is a pretty uninspiring bunch he faces and if he is going to make it 5  in 2010, this look the chance to do it.

7:10 – Kempton – Mirror Lad @ 7/4: Ran OK in the Brocklesby which has thrown up winners. Those others here that have raced look nothing special and his experience will be an exceptional advantage against the unraced ones and unless there is something very useful amongst them (nothing springs off the paper on breeding), then this is his for the taking. Tom Dascombe’s horses often improve significantly on their second run.

7:40 – Kempton – Fromsong @ 3/1: No idea why Misaro is shorter as Fromsong beat him fair and square two starts back and finds himself 5lb better off tonight. Is better over 5f than 6f and so I can forgive him his failure at Lingfield last time. His last 5 runs here see him place 1,2,6,2,3. He evidently likes this course. Trainer has a healthy £12.75 LSP with his runners here and wouldnt be coming here if he didnt think this was a suitable opportunity for his veteran.

For the final 3 races, I suggest the following:

8:10 – Kempton – Resplendent Alpha ew @12/1: Is largely very consistent and despite his recent form figures has hasnt been beaten far in any of the runs (approx 4 or 5 lengths), other than when not acting at Southwell. Has slipped back to a mark 1lb lower than when a very close second here in December 09. Jimmy Quinn is brilliant on the AW and this is a pretty weak race.

8:40 – Kempton – Beauchamp Wizard ew @ 5/1: Won his maiden and then clearly had a lengthy problem. Returned last year with just 3 runs and although he showed little on his first two runs, he ran well enough, if soundly beaten, when second in a 2 horse farce. This is, to all intents and purposes, a weaker race, with lower rated rivals than his conqueror on that occasion. He is well bred and if over whatever troubled him last season, he could start fulfilling a bit more of his potential now.

9:10 – Kempton – Burnbrake ew @ 16/1: Races off bottom weight but has a chance in my opinion. Was running OK, without really troubling off marks in the 60s at the back-end of last year. Has generally run well here, rarely being beaten far. His final run is the exception, but that was at the end of a long season. The break will have freshened him up and a drop of 2lb should enable him to get a bit closer. David Probert is a stylish timer of his races and has a knack of getting big-priced horses to win. I might look daft after the event but 16/1 looks way too big and good value.