Onthesteel's Blog

Friday 16th April

I know I need to improve my strike rate significantly but there are a couple at Newbury I like the look of:

2:10 Newbury – Rjeef ew @ 12/1 and Mr Irons ew @ 5/1: Rjeef has impressed me in two starts this season on the AW, but did show form on turf at two, so the switch in surface does not worry me. Has improved no end as a three year old and was very impressive when winning a handicap at Lingfield last time. He is likely to need to improve again with some unexposed types in the field, but his attitude stands him in good stead and his fitness advantage could be telling. Clive Brittain’s runners are running well at the moment. I am worried about the Michael Stoute’s runner lurking near the bottom of the handicap. He can be expected to improve on his maiden win and could be anything. I suggest dutching the two

2:40 Newbury – Fullandby ew @ 7.1: Will find this Class 2 event easier than the Class 1 Listed and handicap events he has consisted on his last two efforts. Should come on for a promising reappearance run when 8th to Inxile. Probably prefers a bit of cut but has won on good and faster so I am not concerned about that. Runs off 98 and although that is still 4lb above his last winning mark, he has won off higher in the not too distant past. Interesting that Fallon is booked to take the ride, which suggests the stable feel he is ready to run a big race.

2:50 Ayr – Delightfully ew @ 7/1: Has not had a hard season and has run (and won) on this better ground. Has been raised 2lb for a promising reappearance but is still young and should have some improvement in her. Her last race was a good effort given that the winner ran respectably in the Class 1 Mares Final at Newbury, whereas the third has won since, giving the form a solid look. Bags of stamina in her pedigree and the way she runs suggests that stepping back up to 3 miles will be right up her street. She was a winner at this distance last year. A lot of these have had hard seasons or out of form, so a combination of promising effort last time and being lightly raced, makes her chance very attractive

3:15 Newbury – Bullet Train @ 5/2: Ran incredibly green on his debut at Yarmouth but still managed to bag a debut win. Is Derby entered so connections clearly have high aspirations for him. By Sadlers Wells, he is bound to improve as a 3 yr old and this step up in trip is a natural choice. If he is to fulfil his lofty entry, he ought to be winning this.

8:30 Kempton – Orpenindeed @ 7/1: Can strike another blow for the in-form Marco Botti team. Seb Sanders takes the ride and has an excellent record on this horse finishing 3,2,2, the first two of those off tonight’s mark. Is versatile regards trip (6f or 7f), and assuming a decent pace (likely with several front runners), he ought to run his race. Generally runs well here (2,6,2). Handicapper seems slow to relent but conditions of this race will suit him and the stable/jockey combo (18% strike together) suggests a big run is expected.