Onthesteel's Blog

Thursday 15th April

Hope you were on the 6/1 (10/1 EP) and 5/2 winners at Kempton. Also placed horses at 16/1 and 13/2 helped restore some respectability. Evening selections are usually posted up about 6:30/7:00 so for last minute tips why not sign up to the free email? Hopeful more than confident about Thursday but I still think these represent value.

3:05 Newmarket – Golden Stream ew @ 8/1: Her form figures look very inconsistent, but actually, she was rather progressive in 2009. Fitness has to be taken on trust somewhat, but Michael Stoute is having some first-time out winners. She can be forgiven her final run at Ascot when she got completely annihalated and did not have sufficient time to recover. Over Newmarket’s wide expanse, that is unlikely to happen this time. Prior to that she had comfortably won a Listed race, beating similarly rated rivals and had taken another similar event earlier in the season. If she runs to that form, she will take plenty of beating in what looks a relatively weak renewal of the Abernant.

3:35 Newmarket – Dancing David ew @ 6/1: Found it hard to pick between this one and Markazzi but the bottom line is that his Racing Post Trophy fourth is much better than her Timeform Million 9th (albeit Markazzi ran on the wrong side). Again, there is always a question whether a horse has trained on, but Danehill Dancer’s progeny tend to progress very well and are often better at 3 years old. A 6.5 length third to the 2000 Guineas hot favourite is excellent form and the maiden he won before has thrown up several winners. He will need to be disposing of these if he is to be taking his chance in the opening classic of the season, but he seems likely to do so. Elusive Pimpernel did beat the selection in the RP trophy but he is no value whatsoever and the stable have started the season slowly. Even though he may be good enough to win, Doctor David appeals more. Perhaps try the reverse forecast?

4:05 Newmarket – Kingdom of Fife @ ew 5/1: Perhaps another one for The Queen today? Kingdom of Fife was a model of consistency last year, progressing throughout the year and importantly, running a blinder on his seasonal reappearance, which bodes really well for this event. Was third in a Group 3 at the back-end of last season and that wasn’t too bad an effort. He opens this season off the same mark as he left off and that last run suggested there was still some improvement left in him. This trip is a funny choice given that he seems to be getting 12 furlongs OK, but is bred to be best at this sort of distance. I think he can cope with the step back in trip. The visor is put back on and he runs perfectly well in them.