Onthesteel's Blog

Sunday 25th April

A decent day yesterday with Mous of Men (7/2) winning and Mohanad (22/1) filling a deserved 4th spot.

Today there are a few at Bath I like:

2:10 Bath: Barking @ 2/1: Wouldn’t normally tip an unraced colt but this is an interestingly bred horse who could have too much class for these if fully wound up. His sire, Bahri, gets some good 2 year olds but he is by a Pivotal mare and he has plenty of precocity in his genes. The horse is well Richard Hannon’s 2yr olds are flying.

2:10 Bath: Excellentia ew @ 12/1: If the tip doesn’t quite live up to expectations, Andy Haynes grey filly could be one to take advantage. She showed some promise on her debut at Folkestone in a fair race of its type and she looked like she would benefit from the experience. There is speed galore on her sire’s side with 7f/miling on her dams. Her half-brother is a winner in Italy over 6f. She has a decent draw in 5 and if she has come on for her debut, this 12/1 could look big

2:40 Bath: Belgique @ 2/1: Could be a quick double for the Hannon yard with this one looking to have more improvement than the fully exposed Yarra River who has not had the benefit of a run yet this season and no idea if he has trained on. Although some of Dr Fong’s progeny progress, he is mainly renowned as a sire of good 2yr olds so there is some doubt about the Balding runner. Belgique ran really well on his belated debut 9 days ago and the time wasnt too bad at all. He ran really green and can only improve from that.

3:50 Bath: Cool Strike @ 11/4: A very good handicapper who has leading claims in this event if fully tuned up for his reappearance. He progressed really well last year, the highlight of which was a win over 12f at Newmarket off 8lb lower. He then went to Goodwood off this mark and I dont think it was the revised mark that beat him. Manyriverstocross reversed the Newmarket form but Goodwood is a tricky course to handle and the selection was trying 1m6f for the first time. He steps back a furlong today over a course he has already won at.

4:25 Bath: Anglezarke @ 7/4: Should be too good for these, even on his reappearance. Is a Group 1 sprinter by rights and managed a fine 3rd in the Kings Stand last year. Has gone to a new stable, and one that can certainly eek out even more improvement. The only danger appears to the be the progressive filly Tomintoul Singer but 3yr old fillies tend to find it tough against their male counterparts at this time of year and she has to prove she is really a Group Performer having been placed at Listed level

5:25 Bath: Kyllachy Storm @ 5/1: Looks an ew bet to nothing. Looks reasonably handicapped off 70 based on his 2nd here last year off 72. Comes here on the back of a win at Kempton and if he can build on that, back at his favourite course. The high draw isnt the disadvantage that it used to be 5 years plus ago so that isnt too much of a concern. His form figures following his reappearance last year went 3,1,1 with that second win coming here. This year he has gone 4 and 1, so if the trend continues he has shown he can win back to back. If he doesnt do too much to get a decent position I can see him running well.

Thursday 22 April

Internet has been down for a few days so only now able to catch up with the BLOG. Poor fare today on the flat, but the one I like the look of is:

2:30 Beverley – Eseej  ew @ 10/1. Eseej is largely a  consistent animal who has been running well of late on the AW. He has had two recent turf runs, both respectable. On the first occasion, he finished a creditable 4th off 1lb higher on unsuitably heavy ground at Folkestone. He then went to Pontefract and went off a bit too quick under an inexperienced apprentice and finished 4th again – not beaten a huge distance. William Carson is a more experienced apprentice than John Cavanagh and seems to be a very good judge of pace. Amazing Blue Sky is competition for the lead and my only worry is that they cut each others throats. I am prepared to take the risk they go a quick, but sensible gallop and Eseej can fend off those coming from behind. Sworn Tigress is up markedly in  the weights now and is one to take on whereas some of the other leading fancies have not yet had a run/been off for a very long time. Sorthern Regent has yet to deliver on turf despite an encouraging run last time.

Sunday 18th April

A hugely improved day yesterday with a number hitting the bar and TWO winners….., bringing me back into a positive LSP for the month.

The selections for today are:

2:35 Ascot – Cockney Trucker @ 9/4: Henderson horse is the tissue favourite, mainly thanks to his good day yesterday, and he may well have a winner later on the card too, but You’re The Top will do well to give almost a stone to Cockney Trucker, whose recent form is better than that of his main rival. Cockney Trucker wasn’t bad as a hurdler, placed at the Cheltenham Festival and ran against Khyber Kim. He has improved as a chaser, albeit with experience and his run against Tchico Polos was franked yesterday when he ran well behind French Opera. He is slowly getting it together over fences and can the most of the weight he receives from Henderson’s horse, who disappointed last time and has a relatively long season. Cockney Trucker has missed Cheltenham this year and with the good ground likely to suit (won on it and breeding suggests it), he should take all the beating with a clear round.

3:10 Ascot – Rougham @ 3/1:
A double for Peter Hobbs and Richard Johnson perhaps, courtesy of top-weight, Rougham? This American bred will certainly prefer the quick conditions he gets today and if he can make use of his speed, he can make all against an uninspiring bunch. The only conceivable dangers look to be Souter Point who doesnt get home, Peace Corps who doesnt stay either and Blazing Buck who will find this happening all too quick. The selection has been raised 3lb for a second place finish at Wincanton. The ground that day was on the easy side of good and he did well to run so well, giving the winner 5lb. The third has come out and won since giving the form a solid look.

4:55 Ascot – Busker Royal ew @ 6/1: His run last time was abysmal and maybe something was amiss given he has been off 113 days since. He was running off the same mark as his previous win, so it wasnt as if the handicapper had caught up with him. The break may well have done him the world of good and if he can resume the progress he was making prior to that shocker, he could be value at around 6/1. Is a pound below his last winning mark now. Prior to that, he beat Nom de Guerre, who finished a creditable second yesterday behind Tribe and tends to hold his for well, whereas the previous time he beat subsequent Scottish National 3rd, No Panic in a novice chase. Hios course figures read 2,1,2,2 so he clearly likes it here and being by Sharastani, this quicker ground should be fine for him.

5:15 Stratford – Mumbles Pier ew @ 8/1: Has an absence to overcome but the booking of Tony McCoy suggests to me that connections mean business. No non-trier here! Has definitely been waiting for this better ground and todays quick conditions around a tight track like Stratford will suit well. His course figures read 1,2,4. When last here, he beat a previous (and subsequent winner) in Aohna and the third, fourth and fifth have all won since. He then disappointed at Exeter but the ground that day was on the easy side of good, the stable were not in great form and some horses dont act right-handed. The only other time Mumbles Pier went right-handed, he was beaten 25 lengths into third. I am prepared to forgive him that run. Off only 4lb above his winning mark, with conditions to suit and a stable in fine form, 8/1 looks each way value to me

Friday 16th April

I know I need to improve my strike rate significantly but there are a couple at Newbury I like the look of:

2:10 Newbury – Rjeef ew @ 12/1 and Mr Irons ew @ 5/1: Rjeef has impressed me in two starts this season on the AW, but did show form on turf at two, so the switch in surface does not worry me. Has improved no end as a three year old and was very impressive when winning a handicap at Lingfield last time. He is likely to need to improve again with some unexposed types in the field, but his attitude stands him in good stead and his fitness advantage could be telling. Clive Brittain’s runners are running well at the moment. I am worried about the Michael Stoute’s runner lurking near the bottom of the handicap. He can be expected to improve on his maiden win and could be anything. I suggest dutching the two

2:40 Newbury – Fullandby ew @ 7.1: Will find this Class 2 event easier than the Class 1 Listed and handicap events he has consisted on his last two efforts. Should come on for a promising reappearance run when 8th to Inxile. Probably prefers a bit of cut but has won on good and faster so I am not concerned about that. Runs off 98 and although that is still 4lb above his last winning mark, he has won off higher in the not too distant past. Interesting that Fallon is booked to take the ride, which suggests the stable feel he is ready to run a big race.

2:50 Ayr – Delightfully ew @ 7/1: Has not had a hard season and has run (and won) on this better ground. Has been raised 2lb for a promising reappearance but is still young and should have some improvement in her. Her last race was a good effort given that the winner ran respectably in the Class 1 Mares Final at Newbury, whereas the third has won since, giving the form a solid look. Bags of stamina in her pedigree and the way she runs suggests that stepping back up to 3 miles will be right up her street. She was a winner at this distance last year. A lot of these have had hard seasons or out of form, so a combination of promising effort last time and being lightly raced, makes her chance very attractive

3:15 Newbury – Bullet Train @ 5/2: Ran incredibly green on his debut at Yarmouth but still managed to bag a debut win. Is Derby entered so connections clearly have high aspirations for him. By Sadlers Wells, he is bound to improve as a 3 yr old and this step up in trip is a natural choice. If he is to fulfil his lofty entry, he ought to be winning this.

8:30 Kempton – Orpenindeed @ 7/1: Can strike another blow for the in-form Marco Botti team. Seb Sanders takes the ride and has an excellent record on this horse finishing 3,2,2, the first two of those off tonight’s mark. Is versatile regards trip (6f or 7f), and assuming a decent pace (likely with several front runners), he ought to run his race. Generally runs well here (2,6,2). Handicapper seems slow to relent but conditions of this race will suit him and the stable/jockey combo (18% strike together) suggests a big run is expected.

Thursday 15th April – Kempton

Like the look of a lucky 15 on races 2-5 and suggest the following:

6:10 Kempton- Calypso Star @ 2/1: Has trained on well and looked a different horse on his reappearance when winning a shade cosily over a mile here. He needs to get this extra distance but the way he galloped to the line over a mile and the stamina influences in his dam’s side, he stands a great chance of getting it. Richard Hannon has hit a decent vein of form in the last few days and Calypso Star can further enhance that by taking this off only a 7lb higher mark.

6:40 – Kempton – Sedgewick @ 7/4: Is on a magnificent roll and still looked well ahead of the handicapper when sluicing in off a mark of 67. He beat a reliable yardstick in Quince that day and previously beat Drizzi (3rd here yesterday). The only slight nagging doubt is his ability to go right handed given all his winning has been done the other way round. Having said that, he has run well here before (placed 3rd). This is a pretty uninspiring bunch he faces and if he is going to make it 5  in 2010, this look the chance to do it.

7:10 – Kempton – Mirror Lad @ 7/4: Ran OK in the Brocklesby which has thrown up winners. Those others here that have raced look nothing special and his experience will be an exceptional advantage against the unraced ones and unless there is something very useful amongst them (nothing springs off the paper on breeding), then this is his for the taking. Tom Dascombe’s horses often improve significantly on their second run.

7:40 – Kempton – Fromsong @ 3/1: No idea why Misaro is shorter as Fromsong beat him fair and square two starts back and finds himself 5lb better off tonight. Is better over 5f than 6f and so I can forgive him his failure at Lingfield last time. His last 5 runs here see him place 1,2,6,2,3. He evidently likes this course. Trainer has a healthy £12.75 LSP with his runners here and wouldnt be coming here if he didnt think this was a suitable opportunity for his veteran.

For the final 3 races, I suggest the following:

8:10 – Kempton – Resplendent Alpha ew @12/1: Is largely very consistent and despite his recent form figures has hasnt been beaten far in any of the runs (approx 4 or 5 lengths), other than when not acting at Southwell. Has slipped back to a mark 1lb lower than when a very close second here in December 09. Jimmy Quinn is brilliant on the AW and this is a pretty weak race.

8:40 – Kempton – Beauchamp Wizard ew @ 5/1: Won his maiden and then clearly had a lengthy problem. Returned last year with just 3 runs and although he showed little on his first two runs, he ran well enough, if soundly beaten, when second in a 2 horse farce. This is, to all intents and purposes, a weaker race, with lower rated rivals than his conqueror on that occasion. He is well bred and if over whatever troubled him last season, he could start fulfilling a bit more of his potential now.

9:10 – Kempton – Burnbrake ew @ 16/1: Races off bottom weight but has a chance in my opinion. Was running OK, without really troubling off marks in the 60s at the back-end of last year. Has generally run well here, rarely being beaten far. His final run is the exception, but that was at the end of a long season. The break will have freshened him up and a drop of 2lb should enable him to get a bit closer. David Probert is a stylish timer of his races and has a knack of getting big-priced horses to win. I might look daft after the event but 16/1 looks way too big and good value.

Tuesday 13th April

I feel desperately unfortunate, as my selections are generally running well and either being placed at skinny odds or just missing the places by one or two at longer odds. Undeterred, I plough on….

2:20 Pontefract: Ponting ew @ 8/1: Has been ultra-consistent on the fibresand of late, winning his fair share. Ran too bad to be true over a trip too far when returned to turf at Doncaster but had a career high mark there and it was in a better race (0-85). The grass is not the problem because he does have plenty of turf form. Back in a Class 5 (0-70) he will relish this easier opposition. He has been dropped 5lb from that last run and is now 2lb below his highest winning mark, so is arguably reasonably handicapped. The drop back to 6f is very much in his favour too. The trainer is in blinding form at the moment and has a healthy 12% strike with older horses here at Pontefract.

3:20 Pontefract: Harrison George ew @ 8/1: Had a really tough task when finishing mid-field in the Lincoln. This is significantly easier. Has been plying his trade over 6 and 7 furlongs and while he has it to prove at a mile, the way he runs suggests he will get it, often staying on strongly over 7. His dam won over 10f so there is plenty of stamina there to suggest this distance should be well within his capabilities. It could be argued he is weighted to the hilt, but that handicapping is based on his 7f runs and there may be improvement to come over this new trip. A good run from him should point to Albaqaa’s chance later on the card. The stable continue to bang out the winners and retun a small LSP with their older horses here.

3:30 Yarmouth: St Louis @ 2/1: Showed promise in maidens last year without really threatening, but came good on his handicap debut at Redcar when winning impressively. There should be plenty more to come from this improving sort and a 6lb penalty looks far from prohibitive. Richard Fahey has a 28% strike with the limited runners he has here and would not be sending him all this way from his Northern stable to a back-and-beyond course if he hadn’t specifically targeted this as a winning opportunity. The ground is drying all the time, but being by Compton Place he ought to go on anything and it should not firm up too much from the morning description of good to soft.